A New Epoch—and Spectrum—of Conflict

Look around. No “good old-fashioned war” is in sight. There are a few possibilities—for example, on the Korean peninsula; or between China and Taiwan; or India and Pakistan; and, as usual, in the Middle East—but these do not seem imminent. Moreover, the most recent war, the Gulf War of 1990–1991, reflected the advent of the “revolution in military affairs” among U.S. forces and thus was more newthan old-fashioned—perhaps enough to discourage would-be conventional warmakers elsewhere from supposing they could win anytime soon against the newest generation of U.S. military forces. If another conventional war involving the United States occurs, it is likely to be radically different—as different from the Gulf War as it was from what had gone before, and largely for the same reason: the deepening impact of the information revolution on military affairs. And once a new war occurs, it may then be observed that the 1990s were not simply the post–Cold War period but also a new interwar period, one filled with radical change in which the contours of future conflicts were being shaped.